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Back in 2018, a mere eight words to ignite a Labour conference and to show the party was falling out of love with its then leader. Although not precisely stirring rhetoric, the words were greeted with wild cheering as delegates rose in spontaneous acclamation.

When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". But context is everything.

During that deeply polarized period of 2018, departing from his agreed text like this was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in working-class seats above the Europhile sentiments within Labour. With that single address, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against the leadership he would later replace.

The Shift in Position and Closed Issues

Since then, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the EU question had been settled by the 2019 national vote. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” commitments that forbade rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in key seats, despite survey data indicates a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.

Pressure Building on Europe

Yet, it’s now the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled party leader. And, if EU relations may not be the central crisis of British politics, a lid that has been kept firmly shut since Brexit is starting to loosen again.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified their language regarding the damage caused by Brexit has caused to the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick with which to beat Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and remains his sole political accomplishment.

And yet, the scale of the damage, reportedly has left Britain with a national economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, dwarfs the minor adjustments so far offered by ministers. The PM's much-touted relationship reset negotiated with the EU last summer offers economic benefits quantified in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure & Bolder Ideas

The chancellor is among those trying to overcome long-standing Home Office resistance to a broader scheme designed to boost growth program for young people by which youths can move between Britain and Europe to study or work.

David Lammy has pondered publicly regarding the “self-evident” benefits of being in a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, recently voted for a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.

While the Europe minister, who oversees EU policy, now present at every cabinet meeting, insists the red lines remain unchanged, there exist avenues to work around them. One idea involves declaring the commencement of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the next manifesto, with implementation only if Labour won a new electoral mandate.

The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Scepticism

However, Starmer has most recently pouring cold water again cautioning that rejoining a European customs area would “unravel” the commercial agreements with the US, which he views as signature achievements of his premiership.

It is understood that the PM’s scepticism go still deeper, stemming from three further factors.

1. Firstly, he believes any customs union agreement has been made much harder because his ministers actively diverging from EU regulations in numerous policy areas, including the environment.
2. Second, the prohibitive cost set for the UK for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure in talks has led British officials that European nations have little interest in offering favorable terms to the UK than in proving that Brexit does not work.
3. Lastly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is viewed by key advisors in Number 10 as grounds for the UK to keep its distance from the EU.

An Alarming Document and Strategic Considerations

This bizarre and terrifying document claims Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” because of Muslim migration. It contains a single mention of the UK, placed beside a suggestion that the US government will intervene in British politics to foster the rise of “patriotic” parties.

But, far from deciding that this makes the US an unreliable partner, the government reportedly fear that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by risking precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Leadership Speculation & The Ghost of 2018

This situation returns us to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not a pitch to become leader but merely an effort to preserve the possibility of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. Indeed, in those days, he still supported a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.

But it’s not been lost on Downing Street have noticed that the Health Secretary, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate in any leadership election, is among a group of cabinet ministers signaling they desire greater ambition regarding the EU.

Aides to Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a future race for the top job, maintain she refuses to comment on her position on a customs union because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Obvious Risk & A Prudent Reminder

The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to claim the territory where most of the party's supporters reside.

It would be wise of him to recall the effect just a few words had on his career seven years ago. There are options for a major proposal on Europe which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open himself, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.